Alpha Desk — calibration-gated forecasting

Alpha Desk

A forecasting desk that withholds its probability until it has earned the right to show one.

The gate that everything else multiplies through

Uncalibrated — probabilities withheld.

The desk logs every prediction and waits for outcomes to resolve. Until it has ≥50 matured, scored outcomes, it has not proven its numbers are calibrated — so it shows none. No track record yet means no probability. That refusal is the product.

● CALIBRATION GATE: 0.00 any single gate at zero kills the call

Market queue

Polymarket · live snapshot

Risk-officer gate stack

select a market

Pick any market on the left. The desk runs rule-based gates on the real market — depth, participation, edge estimability — then multiplies them by the calibration gate. Nothing ships unless every gate clears.

Proof of discipline

We publish what fails.

Our own crypto signal research, run through 5 independent reviews and a corrected pipeline, then stress-tested. Three signals looked significant — until a local-shift null and a placebo test exposed them. Verdict: honest null.

RESULT · NO TRADABLE EDGE

Signal	Large-shift p	Local-shift p	Placebo (predicts yesterday)	Directional	Verdict
volume_surge	0.000	0.077–0.127	lift 4.45 > 2.07 fwd	≈ baseline	rejected
rsi_oversold	0.000–0.002	0.068–0.200	lift 3.42 > 2.61 fwd	≈ baseline	rejected
rsi_overbought	0.001	0.266–0.272	lift 3.09 > 2.00 fwd	≈ baseline	rejected

↳

The signals mark high-volatility days, not next-day direction — proven by a placebo that "predicts" the past better than the future. Well-known clustering, no edge. The sellable asset is this falsification engine, not the signals.